1. Introduction
The publication of the sixth report by the United Nations International Panel on Climate Changes (IPPC), in August 20211, suggests that the world is likely to reach or exceed 1.5°C to 2°Celsius of global warming, above pre-industrial levels, in the next two decades – sooner than anticipated in previous assessments.1 If urgent measures are not taken to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will be at great risk. To limit global warming, and avoid the most severe climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation actions need to be taken, as quickly as possible, by each country and by countries in a shared way.
The intense burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas, and mineral coal) for industrial use, urban transport, and electricity generation, by agricultural activities and the deforestation of tropical forests, are the main causes of the worsening of the greenhouse effect and global warming.
The issue of climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its confrontation will occupy a prominent place, both on the agendas of developing countries and on that of developed countries. It’s a real threat to humanity. It is urgent that the world start growing again and recover from the global crisis associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, by changing its development models towards models that contemplate economic, social and, more forcefully, environmental sustainability. In other words, the world claims for the adoption by all countries of sustainable development models. The `green retake’ mobilizes governments and civil society in most countries and in multilateral international organizations. In addition to economic and environmental issues, stands needed efforts to eradicate poverty. The health crisis hurt the economy and had as a by-product the aggravation of poverty in the world. The idea is to search for sustainable and equitable low carbon climate-resilient development paths.
Brazil and China are major players in green economic recovery post-covid-19. China, as the world’s second largest economy and one of the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG). It houses and must feed 1.4 billion of the 7.7 billion inhabitants of the planet. Brazil, home to the largest tropical forest in the world, the Amazon Forest. Covering around 5 million square kilometers, the Amazon Forest occupies 60% of Brazil’s territory and contains 1/5 of the world’s fresh water – the Amazon basin. It is also endowed with natural resources (natural capital) and arable land in abundance, suitable to produce food and animal protein of several sources.
Brazil and China have strengthened ties in numerous aspects and can benefit from their unequivocal complementarities on the path to sustainable development. China is Brazil’s biggest trading partner, which in a way place us in a position of interdependence in the search for solutions for the growth of our economies. The two countries enjoy a privileged position to present themselves in this arena and have much to gain from adopting joint projects towards a new development model.
We are interested in investigating the perspectives of a common agenda in confronting climate change.
2. Identifying Advantages and Disadvantages for the Sino-Brazilian Partnership towards Sustainability
2.1 Brazil
Brazil is a country of continental dimensions. There are 8.5 million km², almost half of South America, spread over various climatic zones – the humid tropics in the North, the semiarid in the Northeast and temperate areas in the South – which provides us with a rich diversity of ecosystems and biomes:
• the Amazon Forest, the world’s largest humid tropical forest;
• the Pantanal;
• the Cerrado;
• the Caatinga of semi-arid forests;
• the Pampas fields;
• and the rainforest of the Atlantic Forest.
Brazil has a marine coastline of 3.5 million km² and an abundance of drinking water. It has the world’s largest freshwater reserve, with about 12% of the world’s amount, although poorly distributed because the North Region concentrates approximately 70% of the available water.
It is estimated that Brazil has a total arable area of 152.5 million hectares, about 17.9% of the territory, with only 7.3% being used. According to Eleusio Freire (2020),
there is a potential for agricultural expansion, especially in the Cerrado region, corresponding to 90 million hectares or 10.5% of the national territory, of available arable areas that have not yet been used. Therefore, the advance of agriculture in Brazil does not need to occupy reforestation areas, nor does it need to deforest areas for the planting of soybeans or any other crop. Using degraded areas or intensifying cultivation in areas already available for agriculture would be enough to considerably expand agriculture in Brazil, increasing production and bringing more jobs, in addition to increasing the volume of exports.2
Data for the year 2020 are surprising: it shows Brazil as the 4th largest producer of grains (rice, barley, soybeans, corn, and wheat) in the world, only behind China, the United States and India, accounting for 7.8 % of world production. Last year, Brazil produced 239 million tons of grain and exported 123 million. It reached the position of second largest grain exporter in the world, with 19% of the international market. Brazilian grain exports generated around US$ 30 billion to Brazil in 2020.3 According to an estimate by the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil should produce a record harvest of 268.3 million tons of grain in 2020/21, an increase of 4.4%.
Brazil also ranked first as a soy producer, with 126 million tons produced and 84 million exported. Brazil now accounts for 50% of the world trade in soy. China was the largest importer of soybeans produced in Brazil, around 72%.
In 2020, the Brazilian cattle herd was the largest in the world, representing 14.3% of the world herd, with 217 million heads, followed by India with 190 million heads. 60% of the meat exported by Brazil goes to China with an expansion trend. In general, the Brazilian meat sector has been showing a significant increase in production since 1975. Studies by The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) show that chicken production grew more than 26 times in the period between 1975 and 2017. In 2017, total meat production (beef, chicken, and pork) totaled 25 million tons, compared to 3.4 million tons in 1975, which represents a growth of 642%. 3
According to estimates by Contini and Aragão (2021), researchers at Embrapa, agribusiness in Brazil is responsible for feeding around 800 million people, or approximately 10% of the global population, including the Brazilian population. This is a very impressive achievement.4
The concrete fact is that, in addition to being a world exporter of soy and many other food items, Brazil is consolidating itself as one of the main responsible for the planet’s food supply and must do so in the most sustainable way, with compliance and observance of sanitary and environmental best practices, and with a quality standard to be worldwide recognized.
Brazil is rich in minerals. Highlight for metallic minerals such as iron, manganese, and bauxite (aluminum ore). These minerals are the basis of the Brazilian mining industry, mainly iron – Brazil is the fifth largest iron producer in the world. On a smaller scale we also have gold, copper, and niobium.
Regarding oil, Brazil occupies the tenth place in the world ranking of oil production. The discovery of huge hydrocarbon deposits under the pre-salt layer, in the deep waters of the Santos and Campos basins, elevated us to the position of the ten largest in the world since the beginning of the first decade of the 21st century.
Brazil has an energy matrix relatively clean. Most energy consumption comes from hydroelectric power plants – 65 %. Renewable sources accounts for 18% (biomass, wind, and solar) and non-renewable sources (oil, natural gas, nuclear and coal) responds to 17% of the matrix. Brazil is recognized as a world leader for the use of alternative sources of energy, especially bio-fuel – sugarcane has longed been used to produce ethanol. Brazil’s geography and climate ensure high potential to generate electricity through wind power and solar plans, but still suffers from lack of infrastructure for generation and distribution.
As for the transformation industry, a large part of the sector does not have competitive quality. Brazil is going through a type of deindustrialization. Several causes have been appointed for this situation: i) the low productivity, ii) the modest investment rate, iii) limited participation in global value chains, iv) competition of the industry with a highly competitive agrobusiness sector, v) premature move towards services.
2.2 China
The People’s Republic of China is the third largest country in the world, with an area of 9.6 million km² and a population of 1.3 billion inhabitants. Located almost entirely in the Northern Temperate Climate Zone, the great Chinese territory presents great climatic diversity. Given its relief with large mountains and plains, it contemplates regions with arid and semi-arid climate; mountain cold, with mountain vegetation in the Tibet area; tropical monsoon, with heavy rains in summer and dry winter.
Although huge, the Chinese territory is not rich in arable land because of topographical and climatic factors. Only 10 to 25% of its territory is suitable for cultivation. Even so, China stands out on the world agricultural scene, not only as a major producer, but mainly as one of the major consumers of agricultural products. Undoubtedly its large territorial extension and large population justify this.
China is among the main producers of goods such as soy, tobacco, and cotton. In 2018, China was the 2nd largest corn producer in the world (257.1 million tons), losing only to the USA; the world’s largest producer of rice (212.1 million tons) and wheat (131.4 million tons).5
China’s overall grain production in 2020 was 669 million tons, according to China’s agricultural development report released in May 2021. Grain production will continue to increase, and China’s food security will be absolutely guaranteed during the period of 14th Five-Year Plan, said Mei Xurong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.6 The intention is to fill Chinese dishes mainly with Chinese grains and produce Chinese grains mainly with Chinese seeds. Increasing its grain stocks are strategic priorities for various activities. Today, China is the world’s largest importer of food and raw materials of all kinds. There are signals that its focus is on guaranteeing food security and self-sufficiency in these sectors.
Its mineral resources are probably among the most abundant in the world, but they are only partially developed. It is a leader in the production of various types of ores such as iron, aluminum, gold, and graphite.
China is one of the major coal producers. Alone produces almost half of the world’s coal. In 2020 it produced 3.84 billion tons. Coal is its main source of energy, although its participation in the country’s energy matrix has been decreasing, from 70.2% in 2003 to 57.7% in 2019. This reduction attends to the need to adapt to exigences of a cleaner world. Coal is highly polluting and accounts for about 11% of global warming on the planet. 7
China ranks eighth in the global ranking of oil production. In Asia, China and Russia are rich in hydrocarbons and are major oil producers.
Good news is the fact that China is the world’s leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, mainly from hydroelectric, solar and wind power. According to Kevin Tu (2020)8, China alone should account for almost half of the global increase in renewable electricity in 2021, followed by the United States, the European Union and India. In addition to the largest wind and solar market, China also leads the world in terms of renewable energy equipment manufacturing.
China’s industry is extremely competitive, perhaps the most competitive in the world. The spectacular Chinese growth has been the subject of countless studies. In part, fast growth is the result of priority given to the development of industry and the export of manufactured products, of medium to high technological complexity, to the rest of the world, led by the Chinese State.
3. Highlighting a few points
Chinese authorities in Brazil and experts have highlighted that we have much to gain from the partnership between the two countries. An important point is the Brazilian ability to deliver a stable supply of products in which China has a shortage as we have pointed out. Mostly are commodities, but opportunities exist in several sectors such as: agricultural complex, food security, mineral complex, water resources management, renewable energies, generation and transmission of electricity, transport (high-speed trains), health industry, etc.
All the aspects discussed above lead us to conclude that this is a partnership of giants, opening a thread of hope to leverage the growth of the Brazilian economy, growing modestly since 1980. There are many possible explanations for this timid growth: the low productivity and low competitiveness of the national industrial sector, the modest investment rate, the loss of dynamism and weight of the manufacturing industry and our limited participation in global value chains, mainly as a supplier of commodities, and finally wrong public economic policy designs.
The evolution of the participation of industry in the Brazilian economy that prevailed in recent decades is completely different from what we see in China. While the share of industry in the product decreases in any economy when per capita income grows, Brazil started this evolution very early. There was a migration to low productivity and informal services, premature to a country of middle income and low per capita income. Several economists argue that occurred in Brazil a process of premature deindustrialization.10 At the same time agribusiness goods production has been growing in volume and competitiveness representing 27% of Brazilian GDP in 2020.
From all that was presented above many questions arise: What can we learn from China? What can China learn from Brazil? Is Brazil’s deindustrialization process revertible? Is reindustrialization desirable in this new international labor division that emerges in the aftermath of the covid-19 world pandemic? Are our models sustainable in the context of world warming and climate change? What should be done?
All these questions point to the need for studies and proposals for public policies design, so that Brazil and China can take full advantage of this partnership in this ‘post-covid-19 green recover’. We certainly have the necessary conditions for a green recovery, and opportunities to bilateral cooperation in several ways and in multiple sectors.
The current health crisis and the unpredictable economic and political crisis that Brazil is going through in the last quarter of 2021, may delay this fruitful partnership. Our hope is that China doesn’t give up on Brazil.
Notes:
(1) https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/03/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
(2) Entrevista de Eleusio Freire (2020) https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/noticias/agronegocio/39569-brasil-tem-milhoes-de-hectares-agricultaveis-disponiveis.html#.YTqO4p5Kg_U
(3) https://www.embrapa.br/documents/10180/9543845/Vis%C3%A3o+2030+-+o+futuro+da+agricultura+brasileira/2a9a0f27-0ead-991a-8cbf-af8e89d62829?version=1.1
(4) Contini, Elisio e Adalberto Aragão. O Agro Brasileiro Alimenta mais de 800 milhões de pessoas. https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-noticias/-/noticia/59784047/o-agro-brasileiro-alimenta-800-milhoes-de-pessoas-diz-estudo-da-embrapa, 2021
(5) Mario Alves Seixa e Elisio Contini. China :Projeções para o Setor de Grãos (2018 a 2022). Brasilia, Setembro de 2018. https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/183712/1/China-projecoes-setor-de-graos.pdf
(6) https://www.agrolink.com.br/noticias/china-sera-quase-autossuficiente-em-trigo-e-arroz_450738.html
(7) Kevin, Tu (2020) https://epbr.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/APRESENTACAO-Black-swan-talk_KevinTu_final.pdf
(8) Ibid. op. cit.
(9) Williamson, John and Roberto Zagha (org) Um ensaio sobre “O futuro da indústria no Brasil desindustrialização em debate”. São Paulo, Estudos Econômicos 44(1):185-199, Março, 2014.